THE SOUTHBAY PROCESS

A data-driven approach that begins with uncovering the data that matters

MACROECONOMIC INSIGHTS

To invest intelligently, our clients need both data and context.
SouthBay starts by tracking data points – conventional and not-so-conventional – that best reflect emerging and shifting macroeconomic trends. Then we put that data into perspective and let it tell the story.

It’s a bottom-up approach combined with the understanding that today’s global economy has undergone significant structural change in the last fifteen years. What we buy, where we buy, how we buy – all different. But one thing that hasn’t changed is conventional economic benchmarks – those have remained the same.

SouthBay analyzes the economy as it is today, not as a 50 year old dusty textbook defines it. With the right data in hand, SouthBay provides essential context. Our clients benefit from our first-hand experience in business operations which enables us to provide the right perspective.

MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Our unique, bottom-up data harvesting makes us a leading forecaster on Bloomberg

Our proprietary data collection focuses on the two things that are necessary to fuel economic growth: labor and capital goods. To collect data on labor trends, we harvest millions of hiring data points per week. For capital goods, we focus on the supply chain, beginning with the shipment and production of goods, especially semiconductors. 20 years ago that often meant tracking cement, oil and steel. In the digital age, we focus on silicon. We leverage our extensive knowledge of the semiconductor supply chain and its unique characteristics to gain timely and accurate insights into regional and global industrial production.

Sometimes, the information that we need to make accurate predictions just isn’t available ‘off-the-shelf.’ When that happens, SouthBay uncovers the relevant data ourselves. For example, we develop our own labor data to forecast Nonfarm Payrolls and Jobless Claims. And we track spending on vices (such as spending on marijuana, alcohol, prostitution and gambling) to create the Vice Index and predict consumer spending and retail spending.