SouthBay Research LLC was founded in 2009 to be the most accurate forecaster of job trends in the United States. And we are.
For 2011, SouthBay beat Bloomberg Consensus and the survey's Top 5 forecasters for accuracy.
(Deviation to private NFP payrolls measured as Mean Error; Bloomberg Economist Survey performance detail here).
December Payroll Forecast
(Abridged version. Complete report & data available on request)
Expect A Strong December
Key Takeaway: December Payrolls will be boosted by core job growth and lower layoffs
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December showed broad-based strength
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January could be ugly: accelerated layoffs, seasonal jobs eliminated
- Future Core Job growth at risk from challenging macro environment
December Macro Report
(Abridged version. Complete report & data available on request.)
US Bullishness Restored
Key Takeaway: Corporate Profit Growth collapsed in early 2011.
Restoring that growth was the story of 2011. Whether it will continue is the story for 2012
Timing the Market with Jobless Claims
Key Takeaway: Jobless Claims are strongly correlated with the S&P 500. Users can leverage the data to
- Predict Bull or Bear inflection points
- Time market entry points
- Determine magnitude of market moves